The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July

NEW YORK, Aug. 20, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.4 percent in July…

NEW YORK, Aug. 20, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.4 percent in July to 104.4 (2016 = 100), following a 3.0 percent increase in June and a 3.1 percent increase in May.

«The US LEI increased for the third consecutive month in July, albeit at a slower pace than the sharp increases in the previous two months,» said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. «Despite the recent gains in the LEI, which remain fairly broad-based, the initial post-pandemic recovery appears to be losing steam. The LEI suggests that the pace of economic growth will weaken substantially during the final months of 2020.»

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 1.2 percent in July to 99.2 (2016 = 100), following a 2.9 percent increase in June and a 2.4 percent increase in May.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. decreased 1.0 percent in July to 109.2 (2016 = 100), following a 2.3 percent decline in both June and in May.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance

Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials

ISM® Index of New Orders

Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

Building permits, new private housing units

Stock prices, 500 common stocks

Leading Credit Index™

Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds

Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2020


6-month


May


Jun


Jul


Jan to

Jul



















Leading Index

100.0


103.0

r

104.4

p



  Percent Change

3.1

r

3.0

r

1.4

p

-6.8


  Diffusion

70


80


60


10











Coincident Index

95.2

r

98.0

r

99.2

p



  Percent Change

2.4

r

2.9

r

1.2

p

-7.6


  Diffusion

100


75


100


0











Lagging Index

112.9

r

110.3

r

109.2

p



  Percent Change

-2.3

r

-2.3

r

-1.0

p

0.6


  Diffusion

21.4


50


35.7


57.1











p  Preliminary     r  Revised









Indexes equal 100 in 2016









Source:  The Conference Board








 

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SOURCE The Conference Board